Saturday 24 December 2011

A BRIC in freefall - India - the economic juggernaut heading for a crash?

"India is not simply emerging: India has already emerged" ( B.Obama,Nov 2010)
"India is a rising economic influence of power in the international system" (C.Rice, May, 2005)

Looking at the quotes above I am sure like me you would tend to think and hear of India as a BRIC - a leading light with the potential to challenge the astronomical growth of other emerging 21st century superpowers like China (i mean often the term 'Chindia' is used to describe the axial tilt towards SE Asia in term so economic power).

However the doomsday prophets in a time of slower economic growth and stagnation are out and in the media recently there has been speculation, along with the demise of Kingfisher airline, that India could be an economic juggernaut about to crash!

India is entering a critical phase and doe indeed need the government to be more pro active and implement the reforms it has promised for so long e.e.g opening and freeing up of FDI, otherwise it will be India's underclass who (once again and always with the dark side of globalisation) will suffer the most - tens of millions could be out of work - in addition to the tens of millions already out of work! So what evidence is there - well in 2011 India was named the world's worst performing stock market, with its bourse down by a third in dollar terms, wiping $500billion from it's value.

But India is still growing at 6.9% - yes indeed, very true but India faces a very different set of challenges compared to the Eurozone countries - with a rapidly growing & youthful population of 1.2 billion people, most economists agree that anything below 7% growth will feel "distinctly uncomfortably" - adding to the issue of rising fuel and food prices and dizzying inequality of wealth - the stratification of society embedded in the caste system of old - all o the latter is arguably a recipe for social tension (and uprising?).

So we will wait and see - keep abreast of India's development - it looks like it could be in a or a rocky time if action is not taken in the New Year!